Key Takeaways
- Consumers spent 29% more during Drinksgiving despite rising prices—they’re selective, not broke
- Menu prices climbed 3-5% year-over-year while dining frequency increased 8%—premium positioning works when value is clear
- 44% of diners will use AI for restaurant selection in 2026—differentiation is now algorithmically enforced
- Early dinner reservations (4-5pm) surged 13% as consumers chase value through timing, not concept downgrade
- Experiential dining jumped 46% while shared plates declined—guests want curated experiences, not communal compromise
Here’s what restaurant owners missed while they were obsessing over their Thanksgiving covers: the holiday season just handed us a playbook for a 2026 growth strategy, and we’re not about to let you miss out on it.
We’re looking at three data points that, when read together, reveal where the market is heading—and which restaurants will capture the value.
Recent research from Toast, OpenTable, and DuraPlas tracked holiday dining spend, monthly price movements, and 2026 consumer intentions.
The pattern is unmistakable: consumers aren’t retreating from restaurants. They’re getting pickier about where they spend.
That selectivity is your (grand) opening.
The “Tradition Economy” Is Alive and Well Spending
Let’s start with what happened during the holidays.
According to the DuraPlas 2025 Holiday Foods Survey, two-thirds of Americans expected to spend more on holiday meals this year. The fascinating part? Nearly half refused to alter their menus despite the cost increase.
This isn’t denial—it’s values-based spending.
When 57 percent of consumers keep their holiday rituals exactly the same as prior years and 46 percent prioritize flavor over price, they’re telling us something crucial about restaurant economics in 2026: people will pay for experiences that matter to them. They’ll just be ruthless about cutting everything else.
Meanwhile, Drinksgiving (the Wednesday before Thanksgiving) showed us what “matters” looks like in hard numbers. Overall, alcohol sales surged 79 percent compared to a typical Wednesday. Hard seltzers jumped 256 percent.
More interestingly (at a high level), restaurants saw transactions climb 17 percent and average check size increase 10 percent, driving a 29 percent jump in gross merchandise value.
This isn’t desperation spending from consumers who don’t understand their budgets. This is intentional allocation toward experiences worth paying for.
The Micro-Inflation Reality You’re Already Living
Here’s where it gets tactical. Toast’s October Menu Price Monitor reveals the month-over-month creep that compounds into real margin pressure:
- Burgers up 0.3 percent since September
- Cold brew up 0.7 percent
- Regular coffee up 0.8 percent
- Burritos up 0.5 percent
These aren’t dramatic increases. They’re the kind of incremental adjustments that feel reasonable when you’re making them, but create genuine sticker shock when consumers add up their annual spending.
Year-over-year tells the fuller story:
- Burgers up 3.2 percent since October 2024
- Cold brew up 4.7 percent
- Regular coffee up 3.2 percent
- Burritos up 3.3 percent
Only chicken wings declined slightly, down 0.4 percent month-over-month but still up 1.9 percent year-over-year.
What’s remarkable isn’t that prices are rising—it’s that consumers keep showing up despite the increases. Holiday dining proved it: when the value proposition is strong enough, price sensitivity takes a back seat to experience.
The question for growth-focused operators isn’t whether you can raise prices. It’s whether your concept delivers enough value to justify premium positioning in a market that’s increasingly bifurcated between “worth it” and “not worth it.”
The 2026 Restaurant Consumer Is Smarter, Not Cheaper
OpenTable’s year-end forecast should reshape how you think about expansion. Dining is up 8 percent year-over-year, with people planning to eat out 10 times per month in 2026.
But the composition of that dining has shifted dramatically.
Where, When, and How People Dine
Early dinners between 4-5pm are surging—up 13 percent—as consumers chase value through happy hour timing. Group dining continues growing (up 11 percent year-over-year), yet 52 percent of diners prefer ordering individually versus sharing dishes. The shared-plates era that defined 2010s restaurant culture is quietly ending.
Experiential dining is exploding, up 46 percent, with restaurants offering 34 percent more pop-ups, collaborations, and chef’s tables. Nearly half of Americans (48 percent) are more likely to book when there’s something unique to experience. And 36 percent prefer neighborhood gems over the latest openings—a dramatic reversal from the hype-chasing behavior that dominated pre-pandemic dining.
How This Impacts Restaurants
The behavioral shift that should alarm generic concepts: 44 percent of diners plan to use AI to help choose restaurants in 2026.
When consumers delegate restaurant selection to algorithms trained on aggregated preferences and reviews, your concept either needs distinctive positioning or exceptional execution. Mediocrity has nowhere to hide.
For operators focused on growth, this environment is remarkably favorable. Consumers aren’t dining out less—they’re dining out smarter. They’re willing to pay premium prices, visit during off-peak hours for value, and seek out experiences worth recommending. The market is rewarding differentiation and punishing sameness.
What This Means for Your Growth Plan
If you’re planning a 2026 expansion, these trends clarify exactly where to focus. The fundamentals that drive successful multi-unit growth—unit economics, financial systems, and strategic site selection—matter more than ever in a market where consumers are selective but spending.
Your Unit Economics Need to Support Premium Positioning
When consumers are choosing fewer restaurants but spending more per visit, your concept needs differentiation that justifies higher check averages. This means understanding your prime cost ratio, food cost percentage, and labor efficiency metrics at a granular level before replicating across locations.
Your Financial Systems Need Real-time Visibility
The monthly accounting that worked for your first location won’t cut it when you’re managing multiple units with different performance levels. You need weekly financial packages, consolidated reporting across locations, and restaurant-specific analysis that tracks the metrics investors actually care about.
Your Site Selection Needs Demographic Precision
When 36 percent of diners prefer neighborhood gems and 44 percent use AI for restaurant selection, proximity to your proven customer base matters more than generic foot traffic. Your expansion criteria should be built from customer data at your best-performing location, not intuition about markets that “feel right.”
The restaurants that will capture 2026’s growth aren’t necessarily the ones with the most aggressive expansion plans. They’re the ones building infrastructure that supports intentional, data-driven scaling while consumers are actively seeking concepts worth their increasingly selective spending.
Planning for The Years Ahead
Holiday dining data revealed a consumer base that’s resilient, selective, and willing to pay for experiences that deliver real value. The opportunity isn’t convincing people to dine out more—it’s building concepts distinctive enough to earn their intentional spending.
For growth-focused operators with solid unit economics and proper financial infrastructure, 2026 looks remarkably favorable.
The question isn’t whether there’s opportunity in the market. It’s whether your growth foundation is ready to capture it.
Ready to build the financial infrastructure that supports smart expansion? Connect with restaurant accounting specialists who understand your growth goals.
